Six months of war between Iran, US leave Arab states facing tough questions

Six months after the US and Israel launched surprise strikes on Iran on 28 February that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior officials, analysts assessed the war had produced neither regime collapse in Tehran nor a clear US victory, but a grinding war of attrition estimated to have killed 8,000-10,000 people. Despite claims Iran's nuclear programme had been 'obliterated,' Tehran was believed to still hold roughly 440kg of highly enriched uranium, and refused US demands to surrender it or halt enrichment entirely. The conflict triggered a global oil-supply shock as fighting over the Strait of Hormuz, through which more than a fifth of the world's oil and gas transits, slowed shipping to a trickle; a June memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran lowered the war's intensity without ending it, while regional tensions -- including Houthi-Saudi clashes in Yemen and a new Turkiye-Pakistan-Saudi defense pact -- continued mounting.

By mid-September Trump was predicting the war would end 'immediately' after the November US midterm elections, accusing Iran of deliberately prolonging the conflict to help Democrats retake Congress: 'They're desperate to try and affect the election.' The war's economic toll at home was becoming a political liability, with US petrol prices near $4.27 a gallon (up nearly 30% year-on-year) and Trump's approval rating down to the low-to-mid 30s from the high 40s at the start of his term; fighting continued even as Trump spoke, with Iran and the US trading strikes on shipping (Iran hitting ten vessels near Hormuz after the US sank five Iranian oil tankers) and Saudi Arabia issuing repeated emergency alerts over Houthi attacks.